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Lake to see natural ebbs and flows again?

After a five-year $27 million study, the IJC (International Joint Commission), governing body of the St Lawrence Seaway, which extends from Montreal as far west as the Welland Canal connecting Lakes Ontario and Erie, will next month propose changes in the the rate of discharge from Lake Ontario.

Three possible courses of action are seen: leave things pretty much the same; increase the overall volume of outflow; or tweak the current program. A fourth possibility, reduce total outflow, is not seen as likely.

I've noticed that when it comes to bureaucratic decisions, far too often the least likely option turns out to be the one that would benefit the most people. Not saying it'll be so this time, but we'll wait and see what the proposals are.

Three of the most vocal interested parties; homeowners in the Irondequoit Bay area on the US shore near Rochester, commercial shipping interests on Lake St. Louis at Montreal, and the various hydropower generators, (Quebec Hydro) are at odds. Rochester wants lower levels during the spring runoff months of April, May and June, when northwesterly storms are apt to push the water level on the south shore above flood stage. Montreal's problem arises during the low water months of late summer. That's when they need more water, and the hydro interests, well, they want more water ALL the time.

Given that ocean-going vessels require deep water during the navigation season, the Seaway Commission responds by increasing outflow to maintain adequate levels in Lake St Louis (29-30 feet). This is no trouble during the high flow months of April, May and June. These high levels have destroyed a number of wetlands on the lower river - ecological consequences which until now have been dismissed as unavoidable.

In recent years, however, the late summer months have become another problem altogether. Just when shipping and hydro interests need more water, outflow from Ontario has been dramatically reduced. The Great Lakes Basin is in the midst of a drought some scientists predict will continue indefinitely. Suddenly, there's no extra water to play with.

If the system is allowed to return to it's "normal ebbs and flows," as Greg McGillis, IJC spokesman hinted somewhat ominously, (Ottawa Citizen, 2/20/08), IJC will create higher lake levels in spring and very low water at season's end.

In January 2008, Lake Ontario was 17" below long term average. With so little water, when the spring runoff begins the IJC might be able to occupy the hydro generators fully and still build lake levels. Predicted water levels won't go above long term levels - which means the Rochester millionaire homes might not fall into Irondequoit Bay in the spring (which is a gorge by the way with very steep sides), but their boat hoists might be sitting in mud by fall. In Montreal, shippers will not have to push the mud around so much until much later - August - when the flood-gates will be opened to allow enough flow to keep Montreal afloat and the power generators happy.

The ultimate loser in this late season scenario could be Lake Ontario boaters. We are very likely to see a more of the "natural ebb" (read extreme low water) conditions that prevailed in late 2007. On the US side, this is likely to affect The Black River, Salmon River, Little Salmon, Oswego Harbor, Big and Little Sodus, Port Bay, Irondequoit, the Genesee River, and other shoreline estuaries with shallow outflows.

The proposal is scheduled to be released soon, but no date has been released.

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