The FATA & Terrorism

By Ben Furman, Former FBI Counterterrorism Chief

In February 2008 Mike McConnell, the Director of US National Intelligence, testified before the House Intelligence Committee and said this, “The FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) of Pakistan serve as a staging area for al Qaeda’s attacks in support of the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as a location for training new terrorist operatives for attacks in Pakistan, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the United States.”

Pakistan is a terrorism crossroad and its border provinces provide a safe haven that has allowed al Qaeda to regenerate critical elements of its attack capability, including re-filling key leadership positions.

Geographically, the FATA are bordered by: Afghanistan to the west along the Durand Line, the term for the 1,610 mile border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the North-West Frontier Province, the Punjab to the east, and Balochistan to the south. The seven tribal areas of Khyber, Kurram, Bajaur, Mohamand, Orakzai, north and south areas of Waziristan form the FATA. They lie in a north to south strip adjacent to the west side of the six frontier regions of Peshawar, Kohat, Tank, Banuu, Lakki and Dera Ismail Khan that also lie north to south. According to CIA figures the total population of the FATA in 2000 was 3,341,070 people, or roughly 2% of Pakistan's population. It is a rural territory with only 3.1% of the population residing in established townships.

The region is nominally controlled by the central government of Pakistan. In reality the Pashtun tribes inhabit the territory, and they are ruled by tribal elders. The tribes are fiercely independent and not overly friendly with Pakistan’s central government, which has done little to root out the terrorist enclaves that are easily located since they operate in the open with impunity.

The central government is shaky and operates in constant fear of a military junta. Pakistan has about 85 nuclear weapons that are under the total control of the Pakistani military, and Pakistan is steadily adding to its nuclear weapon stockpile. For example, China has agreed to build two nuclear power plants in Pakistan. This deal – especially if it does not contain mechanisms to prevent nuclear material from being transferred from the new civilian plants to military facilities – signals a nascent nuclear arms race in Asia. A 2007 poll of 117 nongovernmental terrorism experts found that 74 percent consider Pakistan, not Iran, the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years.

How did Pakistan become a nuclear weapon country? Through the illicit work of a nationalist Islamic scientist, A. Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s “Islamic bomb” and the purveyor of sensitive nuclear technology across the Middle East and Asia – to Libya, North Korea and perhaps to other countries. There may be other Pakistani scientists who have been or would be willing to work with other countries or with terrorists to help them acquire nuclear weapons.

So where is this leading? We have tribal areas sympathetic to al Qaeda, and a country with nuclear technology and devices that possibly could be acquired by al Qaeda through its liaisons with Pakistani militants. A recent National Intelligence Estimate said, “al Qaeda will continue trying to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear material, and it would not hesitate to use them if it develops sufficient capability.”

Pakistan is an ally, but there’s a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist attack on the United States, perhaps by weapons of mass destruction. The Mumbai, India attack by the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists (1) with alleged links to elements of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency has raised the tension between the two countries to a tipping point. Pakistan military resources recently directed against terrorist activity in the FATA are being re-deployed along the India/Pakistan border to address a possible attack by India. This is a real possibility since there have been three violent conflicts between the countries since 1947, and a contentious and sometimes violent border dispute over Kashmir continues. Al Qaeda thrives on this kind of volatility and once out of the spotlight it will plot the next attack.

On his list of problems to address our President must put Pakistan and the tribal areas near the top.
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(1) Lashkar-e-Taiba is a self-described militant Islamic group based in Pakistan and Kashmir. Their stated goal is to end any Indian occupation of Kashmir and to further promote a fundamentalist Islamic government in Pakistan and throughout South Asia.
The Pakistani government stated that senior members of Lashkar-e-Taiba have confessed to being involved in the attacks. And India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on January 6, 2009, that evidence suggested official Pakistani agencies likely supported the terrorist organization in its attack on Mumbai.